Trend Trading

Thursday, April 22, 2010
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Definition
"Trend following is an investment strategy that takes advantage of long-term moves that play out in various markets... Traders who use this approach can use current market price calculation, moving averages and channel breakouts to determine the general direction of the market and to generate trade signals. This approach is reactive, diversified, long-term, and systematic by nature. Traders who subscribe to a trend following strategy do not aim to forecast or predict markets or price levels; they simply jump on the trend and ride it."
- Definition of trend following from Wikipedia
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo and Trend Trading

It must be understood by any who wishes to use the power of Ichimoku Kinko Hyo that it is, first and foremost, a trend trading system. It is further assumed that the trader wielding Ichimoku does so with a solid understanding of the basic tenets of trend trading. This is a key assumption, since knowledge of how to trade the trend is absolutely critical to long-term success with Ichimoku. Ichimoku on its own will not teach one the underlying philosophy of trend following, so we must make a special mental note at this point regarding the key factors involved in successful trend trading.

Trend traders:
  • NEVER attempt to predict where the market will go
     
  • NEVER attempt to pick "tops" and "bottoms" of price action
     
  • ALWAYS respect the trend and align their trades accordingly
     
  • Let the market tell them when the trend is finished, not their "intuition"
     
  • Realize that they will necessarily sacrifice some pips at the beginning and end of a trend as they wait for confirmation that the trend beginning and end are authentic
     
  • Look at price action from a long-term perspective and don't get shaken by volatility
     
  • Understand that they will go through some potentially significant but temporary periods of drawdown as the trend matures
     
  • Understand that trend trading can lead to large gains but also equally large losses
     
  • Understand that trends can take place on multiple time frames
Profitable trend trading is 99% mental. If one can conquer their mind and quell the inevitable inner dialogue that screams "Whoa! Looks like price is going against your position! The trend must be ending - SELL NOW!!" and keep their eyes on the long term, they stand an excellent chance at being a successful, happy and stress-free trend trader. However, if they cannot turn off this inner dialogue or at least ignore it and keep their focus on the long-term, then they are in for a very short, very bumpy ride as a Forex trader.

As a charting system that is purpose-built for trend trading, Ichimoku Kinko Hyo can provide the savvy practitioner with a much deeper view of the trend and therefore, more secure entry and exit signals than any other trend trading system available. Nevertheless, it must be combined with the proper mindset in order to be used to its full potential.

Before a trader can trade effectively on the chart, a basic understanding of the components that make up the equilibrium chart need to be established. Created and revealed in 1968, the Ichimoku was developed in a manner unlike most other technical indicators and chart applications. Usually formulated by statisticians or mathematicians in the industry, the indicator was constructed by a Tokyo newspaper writer named Goichi Hosoda and a handful of assistants running multiple calculations.

What they came up with is now used by many Japanese trading rooms because it offers multiple tests on the price action, creating higher probability trades. Although many traders are intimidated by the abundance of lines drawn when the chart is actually applied, the components can be easily translated into more commonly accepted indicators.
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1 comments:
WEIRD-ENGLISH-WRITER said...

Understand the ''philosophy of trend following'' is crucial!
Bet only the ''high-probability set-up'',
bet long-only in bullish trend and bet short-only in bearish trend, is one of the philosophy.

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